Alpha rolls to victory in Withers

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Alpha cruised to victory on Saturday in the $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The race, which was not run last year, is a prep event for Aqueduct's $1 million Wood Memorial on April 7.

Sent off as the 3-10 favorite in the six-horse field, Alpha was never far off the pace that was being set by How Do I Win. With Ramon Dominguez riding, the favorite drew even with the leader on the final turn and took command at the top of the stretch.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Alpha went on to post a 3 1/4-length victory over 44-1 longshot Speightscity. Coming from last to finish third was 6-1 third pick Tiger Walk followed by How Do I Win, King Kid and Hakama. Swag Daddy was a scratch.

The favorite covered the 1 1/16-miles in 1:44.23 on a fast track.

"He was great in the gate," said McLaughlin. "We've been schooling him a lot. It worked out today. Obviously it's nice to be outside, but at some point he's going to have to be inside, so we'll see how our schooling is working.

"I think he improved some (from the Count Fleet) because of how wide he was both trips, and he was better in the gate. He gets a better grade for this race - if it was a 'B' last time, he gets an 'A' this time."

Owned by Godolphin Racing, Alpha adds $120,000 to his earnings. In five career starts the colt has three wins for $300,000.

He was the 4-5 favorite when winning last month's Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct. The colt, whose sire Bernardini won the Withers in 2006, was second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes last October, but only 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

"The plans will be to talk to Simon Crisford from Godolphin to see which way to go," said McLaughlin. "He's here in New York right now, but he could relocate, or he could run back in the Gotham in a month. We'll just have to talk about it. At least we got $120,000 in graded earnings going forward to the first Saturday in May. That's important."

Alpha returned $2.70, $2.50 and $2.10. Speightscity paid $16.20 and $5.40, and Tiger Walk paid $2.90 to show.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.